DARK
SPOTS,
some as
large as
50,000 miles
in diameter,
typically
move across
the surface
of the sun,
contracting
and
expanding as
they go.
These
strange and
powerful
phenomena
are known as
sunspots,
but now they
are all
gone. Not
even solar
physicists
know why
it’s
happening
and what
this odd
solar
silence
might be
indicating
for our
future.
Although
periods of
inactivity
are normal
for the sun,
this current
period has
gone on much
longer than
usual and
scientists
are starting
to worry—at
least a
little bit.
Recently 100
scientists
from Europe,
Asia, Latin
America,
Africa and
North
America
gathered to
discuss the
issue at an
international
solar
conference
at Montana
State
University.
Today's sun
is as
inactive as
it was two
years ago,
and solar
physicists
don’t have a
clue as to
why.
"It
continues to
be dead,"
said Saku
Tsuneta with
the National
Astronomical
Observatory
of Japan,
program
manager for
the Hinode
solar
mission,
noting that
it is at
least a
little bit
worrisome
for
scientists.
Dana
Longcope, a
solar
physicist at
MSU, said
the sun
usually
operates on
an 11-year
cycle with
maximum
activity
occurring in
the middle
of the
cycle. The
last cycle
reached its
peak in 2001
and is
believed to
be just
ending now,
Longcope
said. The
next cycle
is just
beginning
and is
expected to
reach its
peak
sometime
around 2012.
But so far
nothing is
happening.
"It's a dead
face,"
Tsuneta said
of the sun's
appearance.
Tsuneta said
solar
physicists
aren't
weather
forecasters
and they
can't
predict the
future. They
do have the
ability to
observe,
however, and
they have
observed a
longer-than-normal
period of
solar
inactivity.
In the past,
they
observed
that the sun
once went 50
years
without
producing
sunspots.
That period
coincided
with a
little ice
age on Earth
that lasted
from 1650 to
1700.
Coincidence?
Some
scientists
say it was,
but many
worry that
it wasn’t.
Geophysicist
Phil
Chapman, the
first
Australian
to become an
astronaut
with NASA,
said
pictures
from the US
Solar and
Heliospheric
Observatory
also show
that there
are
currently no
spots on the
sun. He also
noted that
the world
cooled
quickly
between
January last
year and
January this
year, by
about 0.7C.
"This is the
fastest
temperature
change in
the
instrumental
record, and
it puts us
back to
where we
were in
1930," Dr
Chapman
noted in The
Australian
recently.
If the world
does face
another mini
Ice Age, it
could come
without
warning.
Evidence for
abrupt
climate
change is
readily
found in ice
cores taken
from
Greenland
and
Antarctica.
One of the
best known
examples of
such an
event is the
Younger
Dryas
cooling,
which
occurred
about 12,000
years ago,
named after
the arctic
wildflower
found in
northern
European
sediments.
This event
began and
ended rather
abruptly,
and for its
entire 1000
year
duration the
North
Atlantic
region was
about 5°C
colder.
Could
something
like this
happen
again?
There’s no
way to tell,
and because
the changes
can happen
all within
one
decade—we
might not
even see it
coming.
The Younger
Dryas
occurred at
a time when
orbital
forcing
should have
continued to
drive
climate to
the present
warm state.
The
unexplained
phenomenon
has been the
topic of
much intense
scientific
debate, as
well as
other
millennial
scale
events.
Now this
11-year low
in Sunspot
activity has
raised fears
among a
small but
growing
number of
scientists
that rather
than getting
warmer, the
Earth could
possibly be
about to
return to
another
cooling
period. The
idea is
especially
intriguing
considering
that most of
the world is
in
preparation
for global
warming.
Canadian
scientist
Kenneth
Tapping of
the National
Research
Council has
also noted
that solar
activity has
entered into
an unusually
inactive
phase, but
what that
means—if
anything—is
still
anyone’s
guess.
Another
solar
scientist,
Oleg
Sorokhtin, a
fellow of
the Russian
Academy of
Natural
Sciences,
however, is
certain that
it’s an
indication
of a coming
cooling
period.
Sorokhtin
believes
that a lack
of sunspots
does
indicate a
coming
cooling
period based
on certain
past trends
and early
records. In
fact, he
calls
manmade
climate
change "a
drop in the
bucket"
compared to
the fierce
and abrupt
cold that
can
potentially
be brought
on by
inactive
solar
phases.
Sorokhtin’s
advice:
"Stock up on
fur
coats"…just
in case.