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I haven't
written anything for public consumption
in a while, because I've been busy
living in what I like to call, "the real
world" and making my living by trading
my own money. That's what I do these
days. I'm a fly on the wall with
electronic access to the dens of
thieves.
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If I come
out on top then I transfer those digits
for things I need.
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Yes I'm
still long gold from $290, and crude
from $60 but whatever, I've been doing
ok. I've been doing ok that is, if the
money I have was worth what it used to
be, but it isn't. So rather than just
slap a label on what it is when words
have already arguably lost their
meaning, let's discuss it.
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I am
personally more concerned about quality
of life issues than I am about money
given the current circumstances.
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The last
time when I wrote publicly, I was
talking about the decline of the empire
and the end of the pre eminence of the
US dollar...war, that sort of thing.
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So that's
what's going on now, what I was talking
about then.
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The US is
currently in what I like to call a
period of "decay". It is in a period of
decay in every possible way. If you live
in the real world like I do, it is
evident. If you consume a diet of the
corporate media cheerleading squad, then
you don't live in the real world and it
could be difficult for us to communicate
during the rest of this essay. We've got
people charged with cleaning up the
corrupt broken system going out with an
$80,000 hooker bill and being replaced
by a blind man. The current El
Presidente is a wind-up doll for a bunch
that should all be in orange jumpsuits.
It would be comical if it weren't so sad
to watch it all go down. It is a modern
day tragedy being played out in real
time in the context of a giant
government/corporate media theatre
production.
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It's
amazing to me how people who are into
politics or religion or whatever will
violently oppose some opinions, when
people simply report the facts they see
around them. Anyway, again... another
subject. Politics and religion are both
the same thing. They are both simply
effective methods to control large
masses of people. I just figured that
one out not too long ago when I was into
my learning the history of the world
project. It has always been that way and
always will be.
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So anyway,
that's all I do to make my living. I
assimilate the facts I see around me and
invest accordingly. I keep a diary of
what I think and why, and I even publish
it. If I'm right I make money and if I'm
wrong I lose money. I like it that way.
It keeps me honest.
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That's one
reason I don't write a lot publicly
these days. It is becoming increasingly
difficult for people who live in the
real world to communicate with those who
don't, and there is an increasing number
of those who don't just simply because
most people believe what they are told
and the lies they are being told are now
monumental. Astronomical in size. That's
one of those universal rules about human
beings; the majority will always go
along with whatever you tell them.
That's just the way it always has been
and always will be. All good
propagandists know that.
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For those
who do think for themselves and live in
the real world however, everything that
is happening today has been entirely
predictable and even expected. I mean,
the corporate media will say "no one
ever saw this" or "they never saw that"
and really the case is they just choose
not to have those people appear. That's
a whole subject in itself however.
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I was
noting to my subscribers the other
evening that if you take a look at a
picture of a pump price for gas from ten
years ago until now, that's around an
18% increase annualized every year for
ten years. All the other prices in the
real world have risen at commensurate
levels like healthcare and all the big
items people like me in the real world
need to spend money on.
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Furthermore, if you plot energy in the
last five years, the numbers are bigger.
If you plot the last two the numbers are
bigger yet. The last one, bigger yet. So
what we have here in the real world are
prices accelerating at an
ever-increasing double-digit rate. Call
that what you want. We have real wages
basically constant and good jobs are
harder to come by. We have a middle
class that is going away. We have the
majority of the citizens having their
wealth, if they still have any,
confiscated due to the ravages of
inflation, or with toxic financial
contact with the healthcare/pharma,
legal or government money machines. So
in the "not real world" big brother and
his corporate media outlets wants you to
believe that there really hasn't been
much inflation or any significant
changes to the status quo and that lie
is so big that you may even believe it.
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So if you
do, then you don't live in the real
world and we cannot communicate
effectively because what you think you
know is the product of a corporate
boardroom. What I know is the product of
living.
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The other
big thing that has happened since I last
wrote is that the guys on Wall Street
figured out how to loan a bunch of money
to people that had no ability or even
real desire to repay that money except
for the fact that house prices were sure
to go ever higher which is the
definition of a mania. So working
through a little bit of that math, with
an estimated 30% of homeowners currently
upside down on their mortgages, that
works out to around ten trillion dollars
of real estate still to be walked away
from according to simple math and a few
basic assumptions I worked out the other
night.
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In the
"not real world" they have told you from
the outset that first there was no real
estate bubble, then that there might
have been one, then that it would be
over quickly and now they aren't sure
when it will be over and the PR firms
are busy working on what to tell you
next.
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It's not
going to be over any time soon. The big
question in my mind is whether the whole
thing is about to go kaput or if we are
just going to witness a continuous decay
as the wealth shifts into a very small
percentage of the population... as the
middle class flames out. Again, that is
a subject in itself. That is the subject
of the Straussian nightmare; a change in
the form of government that is pitched
as the same thing as the old government.
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So on top
of this Wall Street genius of loaning
money to people who could not pay, you
have the cure for all this mess being
printing more money (creating more
debt). So they're going to fix a problem
of too much debt by creating more debt.
Perfect. They're even monetizing it by
taking nearly worthless debt for brand
new money created with the push of a
button and an organized media campaign
to tell you what they did and why it was
good and why it was not monetization or
covert nationalization of the banking
system. It is what it is, call it what
you want.
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So the
idea is that by pushing buttons you can
cure these ills, but the reality is that
big pile of new money is diluting the
old money and sending the US dollar into
the toilet. I mean, they're pitching it
as all good, and what's left of the free
markets are in sharp disagreement with
the party line.
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Now; the
only reason the USA has gotten away with
the idea that this balance sheet was
compatible with the idea of being the
world's reserve currency was that the
USA was the global kingpin, the Mac
daddy... until the empire did what all
empires do and that's get too big for
their britches.
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Then they
always start going off expanding the
empire into places that are too
expensive to maintain, imposing their
will on people who don't want their will
imposed on, and then that all gets so
expensive and they start making so many
enemies they start going bankrupt.
That's what always happens. It always
does. That's probably another one of
those human nature things.
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So in the
real world right now, we have a
situation where the banks are bankrupt,
the government is bankrupt, the people
are bankrupt, and the cure for this is
to lower interest rates and create more
money (debt) by pushing a button...
diluting the value of the money further
and causing everything we have going on
now. It all makes sense here in the real
world. All the pieces to the puzzle fit
and none don't.
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So is this
stagflation or is this hyperinflation?
Well, I'm not carrying a wheelbarrow
around with my money in it yet, but I do
know the prices and costs of everything
I need to live are going up at an
ever-increasing rate.
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The shape
of that curve is a polynomial consistent
with ever accelerating inflation which
some would call hyperinflation. I know
that if I earn a 20% return, then I
might be keeping up with the increase in
the costs of everything I need to
maintain my personal status quo. If you
can balance a checkbook and multiply,
then you know. If you are one of the
ones who believe everything you're told,
then you have to not believe your lying
eyes or not be able to balance a
checkbook.
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When the
cure for all problems can only be to
lower interest rates and dilute the
supply of the money by creating more
money, then that is a vicious cycle
consistent with acceleration or
hyperinflation.
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I really
don't like it when people casually
compare what is going on right now to
1929, because in 1929 the cure was
basically to spend less and now the cure
is basically to spend more. Even worse,
being the geniuses we are, we figured
out a way to amplify spending, called
derivatives. They're based on the real
thing but amplified like 100 times. So
we've already been doing the "cure" for
so long that maybe the patient is no
longer responding?
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So what we
are currently seeing, in both gold and
crude oil is a loss of confidence. It's
a loss of confidence that this whole
thing makes any sense.
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It's a
loss of confidence in the absurd idea
that you can create wealth by pushing a
button. Since this whole thing now
relies solely on confidence and not any
intrinsic value, commodities, especially
gold and crude oil, are acting as
alternative wealth storage devices to
paper currency.
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If you
have a bushel of corn, then you know
what that is. You can eat it, or do a
bunch of other stuff with it. With a
piece of paper with a picture and
official looking numbers on it, well you
aren't as sure as you were yesterday
what you can do with that. There will be
no run on the banks this time around,
because the banks can always be refilled
with ever more worthless money. Instead
of a run on the banks, there will be a
run on the dollar. A run on the dollar
(or run into commodities) is the modern
equivalent to a run on the banks back
then, for the reasons I'll get into
shortly.
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So there
is a loss of confidence roughly equal to
people's confidence in the government
and the banking system. This decreased
confidence is fueled by the fact that
they are creating too much money. The
idea with fiat money is that you only
grow the amount of it as the total
output of the economy increases
otherwise you are diluting it. The
thought experiment for that goes like
this. You have one giant pile of stuff,
and one giant pile of money. Right now
there is enough money so that one-dollar
gets one pound of stuff. Now, if you
double the amount of that money, then it
takes two dollars to equal one pound of
that stuff. Unless the pound of stuff
doubles in size, you have just caused
100% price inflation. So, operations
like just zapping a half a trillion or
so into existence out of thin air means
just a bigger pile of money going after
the same amount of stuff. So that's what
we have going on now. These are
financial engineering acts of
desperation to save a system by giving
it more of what got it to this point in
the first place... debt. So when regular
people like me think about that, they
think, that doesn't make any sense, and
they lose confidence.
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That's in
the real world. On TV things are still
good though. So if you don't like what
you're reading here, then go turn on the
TV. You'll feel better.
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I hate to
simplify things too much, but this is
the reason Mr. Greenspan called gold the
conscience of the central bankers back
in the 60's before he lost his mind or
whatever happened. Maybe he couldn't
resist the power of the ring or
something... I don't know. Anyway, it's
their conscience because they can't just
zap gold into existence with the stroke
of a pen.
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Guess
what? They can zap money into existence
now. Poof - you've got money.
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Any amount
you want. That's why this is
fundamentally different from the great
depression. This time, they can just
increase the giant pile of money. they
can just drop it out of helicopters if
they have to. They even said so... and
it isn't going to buy as much stuff. It
doesn't already.
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So you
still have the same basic problem from a
human standpoint. That's the really
interesting thing. In other words,
whether you have a deflation like in the
30's or an inflation like now, the
people suffer similar effects. It's hard
to find a job, you can't make ends meet,
city and government functions and
services are understaffed and
underfunded, and you are hungry. They
are both a state of decay. Both usually
end in war too.
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The last
one did. This one is different however
in a lot of ways... and it's much more
serious. It is fundamentally different
because it is the end of the world's
first experiment in government by the
people and it has been replaced by
something new.
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So if
you're into labels, then maybe you can
find a label for what to call this. I
like to quote Lenin on that:
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"Fascism
is capitalism in decay." -Vladimir Lenin
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So I
really don't want to get into all that
implies in a short essay, but I will
condense it all and say the US is in a
state of decay. Political,
socioeconomic, leadership, influence,
status, any label you can think of.
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The US is
losing power and influence in the world,
and it only has 5% of the world's
population and they're all bankrupt. I
like to think of it like a continuum
from the US coming out on top after WWII
to a banana republic run by El
Presidente. That's what I call them now,
whoever he or she is, El Presidente
because that's what they are. A
corporate spokesman who is put there,
bought and paid for by Acme corp.
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The
country has lost its way and is
increasingly operating at the whim of
the corporate lobbyists and special
interests that own the politicians as
the stench of it all starts to smell so
foul that even the corporate media
disinformation campaign can't convince
your lying eyes. It is not what it
appears to be. It is Rome circa 400's.
It has already bankrupted itself
policing an unsustainably large global
empire. You have to live through the
decline.
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So that
all gets into people living in the real
world versus those who are not. Again,
it's safe to say that the world is
voting with its dollars... and the 5% of
the world's population are going down
hard on 95% leverage. They aren't going
to like it either.
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Tune in next time to hear which states
secede first.