LONDON,
ENGLAND
(CNN) --
A group of
experts from
around the
world will
hold a first
of its kind
conference
Thursday on
global
catastrophic
risks.
They will
discuss what
should be
done to
prevent
these risks
from
becoming
realities
that could
lead to the
end of human
life on
Earth as we
know it.
Speakers at
the four-day
event at
Oxford
University
in Britain
will talk
about topics
including
nuclear
terrorism
and what to
do if a
large
asteroid
were to be
on a
collision
course with
our planet.
On the final
day of the
Global
Catastrophic
Risk
Conference,
experts will
focus on
what could
be the
unintended
consequences
of new
technologies,
such as
superintelligent
machines
that, if
ill-conceived,
might cause
the demise
of Homo
sapiens.
"Any entity
which is
radically
smarter than
human beings
would also
be very
powerful,"
said Dr.
Nick Bostrom,
director of
Oxford's
Future of
Humanity
Institute,
host of the
symposium.
"If we get
something
wrong, you
could
imagine the
consequences
would
involve the
extinction
of the human
species."
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Bostrom is a
philosopher
and a
leading
thinker of
transhumanism,
a movement
that
advocates
not only the
study of the
potential
threats and
promises
that future
technologies
could pose
to human
life but
also the
ways in
which
emergent
technologies
could be
used to make
the very act
of living
better.
"We want to
preserve the
best of what
it is to be
human and
maybe even
amplify
that,"
Bostrom
said.
Transhumanists,
according to
Bostrom,
anticipate
an era in
which
biotechnology,
molecular
nanotechnologies,
artificial
intelligence
and other
new types of
cognitive
tools will
be used to
amplify our
intellectual
capacity,
improve our
physical
capabilities
and even
enhance our
emotional
well-being.
The end
result would
be a new
form of "posthuman"
life with
beings that
possess
qualities
and skills
so
exceedingly
advanced
they no
longer can
be
classified
simply as
humans.
"We will
begin to use
science and
technology
not just to
manage the
world around
us but to
manage our
own human
biology as
well,"
Bostrom
said. "The
changes will
be faster
and more
profound
than the
very, very
slow changes
that would
occur over
tens of
thousands of
years as a
result of
natural
selection
and
biological
evolution."
Bostrom
declined to
predict an
exact time
frame when
this
revolutionary
biotechnological
metamorphosis
might occur.
"Maybe it
will take
eight years
or 200
years," he
said. "It is
very hard to
predict."
Other
experts are
already
getting
ready for
what they
say could be
a radical
transformation
of the human
race in as
little as
two decades.
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"This will
happen
faster than
people
realize,"
said Dr. Ray
Kurzweil, an
inventor and
futurist who
calculates
technology
trends using
what he
calls the
law of
accelerating
returns, a
mathematical
concept that
measures the
exponential
growth of
technological
evolution.
In the
1980s,
Kurzweil
predicted
that a tiny
handheld
device would
be invented
early in the
21st
century,
allowing
blind people
to read
documents
from
anywhere at
anytime;
this year,
such a
device was
publicly
unveiled. He
also
anticipated
the
explosive
growth of
the Internet
in the
1990s.
Now,
Kurzweil is
predicting
the arrival
of something
called the
Singularity,
which he
defines in
his book on
the subject
as "the
culmination
of the
merger of
our
biological
thinking and
existence
with our
technology,
resulting in
a world that
is still
human but
that
transcends
our
biological
roots."
"There will
be no
distinction,
post-Singularity,
between
human and
machine or
between
physical and
virtual
reality," he
writes.
Singularity
will
approach at
an
accelerating
rate as
human-created
technologies
become
exponentially
smaller and
increasingly
powerful and
as fields
such as
biology and
medicine are
understood
more and
more in
terms of
information
processes
that can be
simulated
with
computers.
By the
2030s,
Kurzweil
said, humans
will become
more
non-biological
than
biological,
capable of
uploading
our minds
onto the
Internet,
living in
various
virtual
worlds and
even
avoiding
aging and
evading
death.
In the
2040s,
Kurzweil
predicts
that
non-biological
intelligence
will be
billions of
times better
than the
biological
intelligence
humans have
today,
possibly
rendering
our present
brains
obsolete.
"Our brains
are a
million
times slower
than
electronics,"
Kurzweil
said. "We
will
increasingly
become
software
entities if
you go out
enough
decades."
This
movement
towards the
merger of
man and
machine,
according to
Kurzweil, is
already
starting to
happen and
is most
visible in
the field of
biotechnology.
As
scientists
gain deeper
insights
into the
genetic
processes
that
underlie
life, they
are able to
effectively
reprogram
human
biology
through the
development
of new forms
of gene
therapies
and
medications
capable of
turning on
or off
enzymes and
RNA
interference,
or gene
silencing.
"Biology and
health and
medicine
used to be
hit or
miss,"
Kurzweil
sad. "It
wasn't based
on any
coherent
theory about
how it
works."
The emerging
biotechnology
revolution
will lead to
at least a
thousand new
drugs that
could do
anything
from slow
down the
process of
aging to
reverse the
onset of
diseases,
like heart
disease and
cancer,
Kurzweil
said.
By 2020,
Kurzweil
predicts a
second
revolution
in the area
of
nanotechnology.
According to
his
calculations,
it is
already
showing
signs of
exponential
growth as
scientists
begin to
test first
generation
nanobots
that can
cure Type 1
diabetes in
rats or heal
spinal cord
injuries in
mice.
One
scientist is
developing
something
called a
respirocyte,
a robotic
red blood
cell that,
if injected
into the
bloodstream,
would allow
humans to do
an Olympic
sprint for
15 minutes
without
taking a
breath or
sit at the
bottom of a
swimming
pool for
hours at a
time.
Other
researchers
are
developing
nanoparticles
that can
locate
tumors and
one day even
eradicate
them.
And some
Parkinson's
patients now
have
pea-sized
computers
implanted in
their brains
that replace
neurons
destroyed by
the disease;
new software
can be
downloaded
to the mini
computers
from outside
the human
body.
"Nanotechnology
will not
just be used
to reprogram
but to
transcend
biology and
go beyond
its
limitations
by merging
with
non-biological
systems,"
Kurzweil
said. "If we
rebuild
biological
systems with
nanotechnology,
we can go
beyond its
limits."
The final
revolution
leading to
the advent
of
Singularity
will be the
creation of
artificial
intelligence,
or
superintelligence,
which,
according to
Kurzweil,
could be
capable of
solving many
of our
biggest
threats,
like
environmental
destruction,
poverty and
disease.
"A more
intelligent
process will
inherently
outcompete
one that is
less
intelligent,
making
intelligence
the most
powerful
force in the
universe,"
Kurzweil
writes.
Yet the
invention of
so many
high-powered
technologies
and the
possibility
of merging
these new
technologies
with humans
may pose
both peril
and promise
for the
future of
mankind.
"I think
there are
grave
dangers,"
Kurzweil
said.
"Technology
has always
been a
double-edged
sword."
Related: Daily Tech: Conference Examines Man and Machine Merging, How Tech Will Make Human Brain Obsolete |